Exploring & Demystifying Unforced
Errors In Tennis
Exploring & Demystifying Unforced Errors In Tennis
When a player misses a shot where they’re adequately positioned and have plenty of time to execute, they’ve committed an unforced error.
Beyond the frustrating inconvenience that can make or break a player’s success, it’s a highly subjective data point in professional tennis that gets a bad rap due to the inherent subjectivity of the definition.
In this article, I’ll explore this imperfect statistic in-depth, providing a clear definition and uncovering its origin in the sport. I’ll also share a handful of concrete examples to help you more easily identify when they occur and share practical tips for reducing them, among other compelling insights that will ensure you fully understand the concept.
Definition & Meaning
An unforced error occurs when a player has plenty of time and is well-positioned to execute a shot successfully but misses.
In other words, the shot in question was entirely within the hitting player’s control, and they shouldn’t have missed it.
Unforced errors can happen when hitting any shot at all levels of the game, from groundstrokes to volleys and approach shots; no player is immune to them. It’s also worth noting that although a player technically should have been able to make a shot classified as an unforced error, many factors can influence them. Here are a few potential causes.
- Pressure: Players often tighten up when pressure mounts during a match and are more likely to make unforced errors.
- Impatience: To win points, players must be patient, successfully execute, apply pressure, and wait for high-margin openings that allow them to take control and force an error or hit a winner. Lack of patience or rushing a point commonly leads to unforced errors.
- Lack of technique: Inexperienced players often suffer unforced errors due to poor technique, which prevents them from successfully executing a shot. Examples include using the incorrect grip or failure to follow through.
- Poor Footwork: Adequate footwork is necessary for players to position themselves to execute a given shot, so unforced errors often creep in when footwork is lacking.
- Environment: Some factors out of a player’s control can contribute to unforced errors, including the sun getting into a player’s eyes or a big gust of wind that blows the ball.
- Fatigue: When players tire, their technique and ability to execute consistently begin to falter, often resulting in unforced errors.
Of course, none of these factors matter when calling an unforced error, but it’s worth noting that they’re not all created equal.
Origin & Why It’s Tracked
Today, unforced errors are ubiquitous in match tracking statistics and evaluating a player’s performance. However, the term’s use only started in 1982, thanks to Leo Levin, the grandfather of tennis stats.
Leo got his start in statistics and tracking for the sport while he was a member of the tennis team at Foothill College in Los Altos Hills, California. Initially, he charted the performance of his teammates, including Brad Gilbert, to provide tactical insight, which they’d subsequently use to drastically improve their odds of winning.
As part of his tracking prowess, Leo developed the notion of three possible outcomes for any particular point: a forced error, an unforced error, or a winner, instrumental in understanding a player’s performance.
According to Leo, an unforced error describes a shot where the player who’s hitting isn’t “under any physical pressure as a result of the placement, pace, power or spin of their opponent’s stroke.”
Following his passion for data and analytics, Leo took these concepts and many others to the startup CompuTennis and eventually SportsMEDIA Technology, where he helped pioneer the sport’s tracking.
Unforced vs. Forced Errors
An unforced error describes a scenario where the player hitting has plenty of time and optimal positioning, while an unforced error is the opposite. More specifically, their opponent has hit a shot, taking away time and positioning from the player hitting, which forces a miss.
As defined by Leo Levin, unforced and forced errors are two of three possible outcomes for any point, the third being a winner. Of course, the challenge in charting these two types of errors is that they’re both subjective and require human interpretation, which is imperfect.
Subjectivity In Calling Errors
The most significant challenge with unforced errors, and why the statistic often gets a bad rap, is their subjective nature, which stems from the human interpretation required to mark the outcome of a shot.
For context, unforced errors are manually logged by individuals who watch matches, marking a wide array of statistics for analysis and interpretation during and after an event.
Although winners are apparent, someone charting a match has to make a split-second decision to determine whether a point ended with a forced or unforced error, using their best judgment. However, while one person might think a player had plenty of time and sufficient positioning to execute a shot, another might not agree, as is often the case.
Furthermore, there are scenarios where a high-quality opponent’s pressure can force a player to make needless mistakes. On the surface, an error might appear unforced. Still, in effect, the opponent’s influence drew the error, and there’s no way to fully capture that information effectively – we’re only recording what we see.
Despite these challenges and the inherent flaws that inevitably crop up with tracking unforced errors, it doesn’t make it an entirely useless or unhelpful statistic. With the proper context, it can still be super insightful. Players, fans, and coaches simply need to consider the nuances and take the statistic with a grain of salt, recognizing its imperfections.
Context Is Key
Speaking of context, it’s worth noting that unforced errors aren’t always bad, especially from a coaching perspective. Consider a player ranked No. 75 in the world whose style is counterpunching facing a dominant, high-powered player who’s ranked inside the top 10.
If the counterpuncher plays their typical game, they will likely be pushed around and suffer a loss. As a result, they may need to be more aggressive and take more risks to have a shot at winning. Their unforced error count may rise during the match, but it’s an acceptable tradeoff to apply adequate pressure, giving them a shot at securing a win.
Similarly, unforced errors don’t track the margin of error. For example, with an improving player, several groundstrokes missing the court by a few inches at the baseline aren’t nearly as bad as several that hit the fence due to overhitting. Again, the context matters.
Improving Stats With AI
Although tracking unforced errors can be tricky due to the fallibility of humans who chart matches, AI offers an opportunity to improve the statistics by training a model for this use case.
By feeding data from thousands of existing matches, the ATP and WTA could train AI to reliably predict unforced errors when exposed to real-time matches. This approach would reduce the necessity of human intervention and dramatically improve the accuracy of this popular match statistic.
Although it’s unclear where the tours stand on implementing AI for tracking match statistics, it’s safe to assume they’ll begin incorporating AI to chart matches more effectively, even if the main driver is reducing the cost of producing these statistics.
Examples
Unforced errors can occur in a wide range of circumstances, but here are some common fictitious examples to help clarify the situation.
The Easy Rally Ball
During a point, players often hit several neutral balls down the middle of the court as they work to improve their positioning and take control.
If either player misses one of these balls sent down the middle of the court, it will undoubtedly be marked as an unforced error because they had ample time and sufficient positioning to execute.
The Mid-Court Floater
Occasionally, a player will float an easy ball to the middle of the court, presenting a golden opportunity for their opponent to move forward with an aggressive shot and win the point or set up an easy put-away.
With plenty of time and excellent positioning, they set their feet, prepare early, and take a crack at the ball only to miss wide, long, or clip the net. These seemingly too-easy-to-miss shots often go awry because a player has too much time and goes for too much on their approach, resulting in an unforced error that was entirely in their control.
The Put Away Volley
During a point, players often move forward with an approach shot and then hit a setup volley, pulling their opponent off the court and optimally positioning themselves for an easy put-away volley.
In this scenario, the player has a wide-open court. Assuming they hit a halfway decent setup volley, they’re perfectly positioned and only need to redirect their opponent’s shot into the open court. Instead, they float it long, miss wide, or dump it in the net, resulting in an unforced error.
Often, these shots go wrong because the player tightens up or becomes overly relaxed, missing an easy volley.
Double Faults
One question that often comes up regarding unforced errors is whether a double fault, which occurs when a player misses two serves in a row, is considered an unforced error in all circumstances.
To get straight to the point, technically speaking, a double fault is an unforced error because the server is in complete control. However, things get interesting when the returner influences a missed serve.
For example, imagine a scenario where the returner hits three consecutive winners off a player’s second serve. In this case, the server isn’t putting enough pace on their serve, or their placement is lacking. At Love-40, the server goes for too much on their first serve and sends it long. Then, their opponent steps into the baseline and gets ready to hit another aggressive return but never gets the chance because the server misses wide.
In this case, it would appear that the returner forced the server to go for a more aggressive serve, resulting in an error. Of course, there’s no way to know exactly how the player feels, so it’s simply an unforced error.
However, in tennis statistics, double faults are not reported as unforced errors. Instead, they’re simply reported as double faults, which is an entirely separate stat kept for matches.
Reducing Unforced Errors
Regardless of your level or experience, unforced errors are frustrating because they are routine shots that players should make, and often, we can trace these errors back to the mental part of the game.
After all, you’d likely rarely miss the shot in practice, right? Of course, that’s part of what makes tennis challenging; it requires players to perform well under pressure. If you’re suffering unforced errors, here are a few tips you can use to start reducing them in your game.
Practice Patience
When we practice, instructors often teach us to orchestrate a point strategically: set it up and close it out. Similarly, there’s an allure to hitting a winner anytime an opening presents itself.
The challenge with these two scenarios, especially at the club level, is that players often lack the patience to find the right opening. This scenario leads to overhitting or hitting low-margin; e.g., trying to paint the lines when hitting a few feet within the lines would be sufficient.
To course correct, players can spend time outside of competition practicing patience to avoid unforced errors due to impatience.
For example, a simple game during practice where players have to win the point without hitting a winner pushes players to improve their consistency and develop the muscle of patience. Instead of outhitting their opponent, players must rely on consistency and thoughtful shot-making, often called high-percentage tennis.
Identify Problem Areas & Patterns
When playing a match, it can be hard to spot problem areas or patterns that begin to emerge, resulting in frequent unforced errors. That’s why consciously tracking issues you consistently encounter or having a coach or instructor help identify them can be powerful.
Once identified, players can focus on specific drills and practice techniques to cut down on scenarios that lead to excessive errors.
Pull Back & Go For Less
There’s nothing better than the feeling of a cleanly struck winner. Unfortunately, the allure of executing the perfect shot your opponent can’t touch leads many players to consistently overhit and rack up unforced errors that slowly hand over a match to their opponent.
To overcome this challenge, players can pull back and go for less. Instead of hitting at 100% power, what would happen if you pull back to 80% and get a few more balls in play?
For many, that minor reduction in power can result in significant gains in consistency, resulting in fewer unforced errors.
Emphasize Spin Over Power
In addition to pulling back and going for less, emphasizing spin can further reduce unforced errors as the ball travels higher above the net and dips back down into the court, increasing a player’s margin for error.
Sometimes, an instructor might recommend a grip change for players who wish to develop more topspin, reduce pace, and hit more consistently.
Aim Within The Lines
Many players tend to be unnecessarily aggressive by aiming for the lines when hitting either cross court or down the line. Often, the result is missing by six to 12 inches when a shot that would have landed a foot or two within the lines would have been more than sufficient.
To combat this tendency, players can aim inside the lines instead to improve their margin for error and reduce unforced errors.
Play Cross Court
Another tactic players can use to reduce unforced errors is to play more shots cross court, which has two benefits.
First, it’s the longest part of the court, which increases the likelihood that your shots will land in play. Second, when you hit cross court, you’re playing the middle of the net, which is the lowest part of the net, once again further increasing your margin to cut down on errors.
Records
In a few rare cases, players have hit over 100 unforced errors in a match, but that doesn’t mean they always lose. In some cases, these players manage to pull through as the winner.
Here are a handful of noteworthy record holders.
Kafelnikov vs. Vincent – 2000
Playing at the 2000 French Open, Yevgeny Kafelnikov defeated Fernando Vicente 5-7, 6-3, 5-7, 7-6 (4), 8-6 despite hitting a record 112 unforced errors during the lengthy five-set match.
Davydenko vs. Lleyton Hewitt – 2003
During his second-round clash at the 2003 French Open, Nikolay Davydenko racked up 112 unforced playing Lleyton Hewitt, where he eventually lost 6-3, 4-6, 6-3, 7-6 (5).
Hantuchova vs. Harkleroad – 2003
Also, at the 2003 French Open, Daniela Hantuchova lost a lengthy three-set battle to Ashley Harkleroad. During the match, Hantuchova made 101 unforced errors, resulting in an eventual 7-6 (2), 4-6, 9-7 defeat.
Djokovic vs. Simon – 2016
In 2016, Novak Djokovic ended his fourth-round match against Gilles Simon at the Australian Open with 100 unforced errors. Despite that uncharacteristic play, Djokovic managed to win the match 6-3, 6-7 (1), 6-4, 4-6, 6-3. Despite that less-than-stellar appearance, he went on to win a record-tying sixth title at the tournament.
Near Perfect At The US Open
On the other hand, many fans will appreciate how Roger Federer once played 105 consecutive points without making an unforced error. The impressive record came during his third-round match against John Isner at the 2007 US Open, where he won 6-7 (4), 6-2, 6-4, 6-2.
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